The Makkah Pact: Navigating Defense and Alliances in the Middle East

In recent days, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan formalized a significant defense agreement known as the “Makkah Pact.” This joint commitment has sparked varied interpretations, with some analysts dubbing it a “Sunni pact” or even a “Muslim NATO.” While it signals a potential shift in alliances within the region, many are questioning its implications for security dynamics, particularly regarding nations like Iran and Israel.

A New Framework for Defense?

Over a week has passed since the signing of the Makkah Pact, which establishes that an attack on one nation will be considered an attack on all three members. Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, likened this commitment to NATO’s Article 5 — a cornerstone of collective defense. However, analysts urge caution, suggesting that this agreement may serve more as a declaration of intent rather than a binding military alliance, as its actual efficacy remains to be tested in real-world scenarios.

1. An Alliance of Equals

According to Professor Serhat Güvenç of Kadir Has University in Turkey, the specifics of the agreement’s implementation remain uncertain until the complete text is disclosed. He points out that, unlike NATO, which has been historically dominated by U.S. interests, this pact appears to be an alliance formed among equals. Güvenç emphasizes that both advantages and disadvantages accompany this balance, as the member nations may prioritize their national sovereignty in negotiations.

Alison Minor, from the Atlantic Council, shares a similar view. She voiced her skepticism regarding the alliance’s ability to offer a coherent military response to a range of crises, given the differing interests and strategies of the three countries involved.

2. A Strategic Move Against Iran?

Some experts interpret the Makkah Pact as a reaction to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The presence of Sunni-majority countries neighboring Iran raises speculation that the agreement aims to encircle the nation. However, Turkish officials clarify that discussions leading to the pact preceded the current regional tensions, starting as far back as December 2024. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister underscored that the agreement was not designed to target any specific country.

In response, Iranian officials have downplayed fears regarding the pact, suggesting that it reflects a realization among the three nations about the unreliability of U.S. security commitments.

3. Who Stands to Gain?

Each country stands to gain unique advantages from the Makkah Pact while contributing distinct strengths. Saudi Arabia brings significant economic power, diplomatic influence, and oil resources but is increasingly aware of the threats it faces from Iran’s missiles, Houthi attacks, and disruptions in key maritime routes. Riccardo Gasco from the Istanbul Political Research Institute argues that Saudi Arabia may reap immediate benefits through the pact, particularly given the blend of Turkish technology and the military expertise of Pakistan.

Turkey, with one of NATO’s largest armies, aims to be a bridge between this alliance and Middle Eastern nations, potentially boosting its defense manufacturing and export capabilities. Meanwhile, Pakistan adds military prowess as the only nuclear power among the trio, and the pact may solidify its influence in Middle Eastern matters, while also possibly enhancing its economic and defense ties with Saudi Arabia.

Minor from the Atlantic Council notes that the primary beneficiaries may be the three countries collectively, as the pact allows them to project a powerful political message and enhance their diplomatic leverage and strategic advantages.

4. What Lies Ahead for the Alliance?

The future of this alliance remains uncertain. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed aspirations for the pact to expand beyond just these three nations, hoping it will pave the way for broader regional cooperation. Egypt, which already engages informally with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, is viewed as a potential future partner. Following the agreement’s signing, Turkey’s Foreign Minister described Egypt as a “natural partner,” suggesting future inclusion.

However, analysts caution that under President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt has been reluctant to join formal alliances, fearing negative repercussions in its relationships with nations such as Iran, Israel, the UAE, Greece, Cyprus, and India. This wariness is something the signers must consider as they navigate the intricacies of building alliances in a region fraught with conflict.

Conclusion

The Makkah Pact represents a significant development in Middle Eastern defense cooperation. While it holds potential for collaborative security efforts among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, uncertainties about its practical implementation and long-term effectiveness remain. As these nations seek to enhance their standing and influence, the dynamics of the pact will undoubtedly evolve with time.

• The Makkah Pact is a joint defense agreement among Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.
• It positions itself as a collective security arrangement akin to NATO’s Article 5.
• All parties involved may gain unique benefits while presenting a united political front.
• The future expansion of the alliance may include countries like Egypt, despite regional hesitations.