Understanding Putin’s War Strategies: A European Perspective

Vladimir Putin is intensifying his all-out war against Ukraine while simultaneously waging a hidden battle across Europe. The primary goal of this shadow campaign is to undermine European support for Ukraine, a nation he views as critical to both Russia’s future and his own legacy. For Europe, the focus of our response should not only be defensive against various hybrid threats but also a renewed commitment to bolstering Ukraine’s defense. Ukraine remains the focal point; it is here—and only here—that meaningful defeat and deterrence of Putin’s ambitions can happen.

The Historical Context of Putin’s Policies

In a thought-provoking book titled Warum Russland nicht aufhören wird (Why Russia Won’t Stop), German historian Martin Schulze Wessel delves into how Putin’s policies resonate with a long-standing tradition of Russian territorial expansion and imperial ideology. He cites Putin’s statements from 2016 and 2025—“Russia’s frontier ends nowhere” and “wherever the boot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours”—to illustrate this point. While many in Western Europe prefer to believe that such overt territorial imperialism is a relic of the past, nations like Finland, Estonia, and Poland are more attuned to the harsh realities of the threat posed by Russia. Despite its vulnerabilities, Schulze Wessel concludes that Russia remains “the most dangerous country in the world,” particularly for Europe.

The Role of Global Powers

The historian also emphasizes that Russia’s expansion has historically depended on its alliances with other major powers and has been curtailed whenever it has encountered rival powers. With Donald Trump back in the White House, the U.S. has shifted in a way that no longer provides this opposing force, making Europe the primary bulwark against Russian aggression. Remarkably, European nations, including the UK, have provided more assistance to Ukraine than the U.S. Combined, their economies dwarf Russia’s by a factor of ten, and Germany alone boasts an economy twice as large.

Germany’s Central Role in Support for Ukraine

Germany is now a cornerstone of the European effort to aid Ukraine. Since the onset of the war in 2022, Germany has emerged as the largest individual contributor to Ukraine’s defense next to the U.S., with double the support from countries like the UK or France. With the intersection of ongoing attacks from Russian forces—ballistic missiles and drone strikes targeting cities like Kyiv and Odesa—Germany’s contributions are crucial. According to the Kiel Institute’s support tracker, Germany has supplied 19 air defense systems, including five critical U.S.-made Patriot batteries—outpacing even American contributions.

Historical Responsibilities and Current Engagement

In the initial phase of the conflict, I argued that Germany bore a unique historical responsibility to stand behind a free and sovereign Ukraine. Back then, I felt that their support was lacking. However, as we now head into the fifth year of a war that has surpassed the duration of World War I without any resolution in sight, I can assert that Germany is indeed fulfilling this obligation. Their military expenditure is projected to reach €154 billion (£130 billion) by 2028, parallel to Russia’s military budget for the same year.

Political will is critical, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz exemplified this by visiting Ukraine on October 3rd, the 36th anniversary of German reunification, accompanied by a delegation of defense industry leaders. Notably, as he engaged with Ukrainian officials, Russian attacks on civilian sites in Kyiv continued, perhaps intensified by the awareness of his presence.

Historical Parallels and Current Challenges

For historians, the German-Russian dynamic feels unsettlingly familiar. Germany has historically played roles that both aided and threatened Russian expansion. Past conflicts have paved the way for Ukrainian nationalists to seek independence, yet they often faced imperial aspirations from Germany itself. Today, Germany’s involvement is meaningful, reflecting both risk and a commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. This evolving role of a democratic Germany, advocating for an independent Ukraine within Europe’s community of free nations, is seen as a beacon of hope.

The Future of Commitment and Support

Nevertheless, the questions surrounding the longevity and adequacy of this support persist. Putin aims to destabilize Germany as a leading ally for Ukraine, employing hybrid warfare tactics including drone strikes and political maneuvers. As Ukraine braces for what promises to be a challenging winter, three interconnected challenges will emerge: Germany’s resolve to uphold its historical responsibility, the resilience of democracies against authoritarian regimes, and Europe’s capacity to maintain unity in this shared cause.

Challenges to European Solidarity

It is easy to find grounds for pessimism. Merz faces popularity challenges, and the rise of alternative parties like the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) poses questions about Ukraine’s future support. Even in Poland, solidarity appears to be waning among some right-leaning parties, while in France, candidates express concerns about the costs of continued assistance to Ukraine. Recent polls in Italy reveal significant opposition to further weapons support for Kyiv.

During recent discussions in Brussels, I encountered a once-unified audience that faltered when it came to the topic of utilizing frozen Russian assets held in Belgium, revealing a hesitance to act decisively. With devastating impacts on Ukraine’s economy, experts estimate that by 2027, an additional €100 billion may be necessary. European taxpayers, grappling with economic pressures, are unlikely to welcome such a financial burden.

Putin is counting on the decline of decadent European democracies against the unyielding nature of his imperial ambitions. Our collective task is to demonstrate that he is sorely mistaken.

Conclusion

In summary, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine poses significant challenges for Europe, especially as Germany steps into a central role in supporting Ukraine. Historical lessons underscore the importance of unity and resolve in countering Putin’s ambitions, reminding us that the struggle for Ukraine’s sovereignty is as much about Europe’s future as it is about Ukraine’s.

• Putin’s strategies aim to weaken European support for Ukraine.
• Germany has become the largest European supporter of Ukraine.
• The political will in Germany is crucial for maintaining this support.
• Europe must remain united in its response to Russian aggression.