New Security Guarantees: A Step Toward Peace Between Moscow and Kyiv

Recent discussions among US and European officials suggest that a new security guarantee package from the White House could serve as a pivotal moment in the ongoing efforts to secure a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, they caution that there are still significant disagreements regarding the future of Ukrainian territories currently under Russian occupation.

Key Talks in Berlin

In talks held in Berlin this week, the US presented a new security package to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside senior diplomats and security officials from European allies. The US delegation, led by envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, reported positive reactions from Zelenskyy and other leaders concerning the proposed guarantees, which are similar to those offered to NATO allies. These aims are to ensure Russia does not restart its military aggression should a peace agreement be reached.

“I think the Ukrainians would tell you, as would the Europeans, that this is the most robust set of security protocols they have ever seen,” stated a US official involved in the negotiations. “It is a very, very strong package. I hope the Russians will look at it and decide they have no intention of reigniting the war.”

Details of the Security Package

While US officials refrained from providing specific details about the content of this security package or the responsibilities of defenders in Ukraine, they did clarify that US troops would not be deployed on the ground as part of any agreement.

Perspectives from European Leaders

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed optimism at a news conference, stating that the two parties are closer to a genuine peace process than they have been since the onset of Russia’s large-scale invasion in 2022. Merz emphasized the substantial nature of the legal and material guarantees that the US has presented.

President Zelenskyy described the recent discussions as “productive,” supported by the remarks of Ukraine’s chief peace negotiator, who noted “real progress” during this round of talks.

Importance of Security Guarantees

These security guarantees are seen as crucial for any potential peace deal. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer underscored this earlier, insisting that any agreement must encompass strong security assurances from Western nations to ensure a lasting resolution.

“It’s essential that we take this matter seriously,” Starmer remarked. “[Vladimir] Putin has repeatedly shown that he will pursue further aggression if given the chance.”

Outstanding Issues and Negotiations

While US officials indicated they were still brainstorming potential terms regarding the status of the occupied Ukrainian territories, they mentioned the possibility of establishing these regions as an “economic free zone.” Nevertheless, substantial differences remain regarding control and governance in these areas.

On the topic of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which remains under Russian control yet is located in Ukraine, the two sides also failed to reach an agreement. The US side proposed a fair division of the plant’s energy output, aiming for a “50/50” split.

Ukraine’s Stance on NATO

Zelenskyy exhibited a willingness to reconsider Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, provided that legally binding security guarantees similar to those for alliance countries could be delivered from the US and its allies. He also expressed hope that front lines would be frozen rather than conceding territory in the Donbas region, which has been largely occupied by Russian forces.

Continuing Developments in Europe

European leaders, including Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, plan to meet with Zelenskyy to show support. The outcome of these discussions is poised to have lasting implications for European security.

“If Ukraine falls, he won’t stop,” Merz warned during a recent conference, highlighting the broader threat posed by Putin’s ambitions.

Conclusion

The situation remains complex as international talks proceed. While progress has been made, formidable challenges still lie ahead regarding territorial disputes, governance, and security guarantees. The path towards a sustainable peace agreement hinges on the resolution of these critical issues.

Key Takeaways

• A new US-backed security guarantee package may facilitate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
• Significant discrepancies remain over the future of occupied Ukrainian territories.
• European leaders emphasize the importance of robust security guarantees in any potential deal.
• Negotiations are ongoing with a focus on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and Ukraine’s NATO ambitions.