Shifting Dynamics in Myanmar: The Military’s Resurgence Amid Elections

In Myanmar, the military has been regaining ground in its ongoing struggle against various opposition groups, having successfully retaken territory while proceeding with a controversial election set to commence on Sunday. This resurgence raises questions about its stability, as critics had previously speculated about its potential downfall.

The Role of China in Myanmar’s Conflict

Analysts highlight changing dynamics in the five-year conflict, primarily attributing this shift to China and its fluctuating support. Jason Tower, a senior expert at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, suggests that China’s influence has tilted the balance in favor of the military regime. Beijing has implemented border closures aimed at pressuring significant ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar to agree to ceasefires, even facilitating the return of territory to the military, coupled with increased diplomatic backing and supply of weaponry.

“The newer drone technologies introduced to the military, which are linked to China, as well as the pressure on ethnic armed organizations, have notably diminished the resistance faced by the junta in the northern regions,” Tower observed. Furthermore, by including Myanmar’s military in forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, China has bolstered its international stance.

While civil unrest continues to complicate the situation, with vast areas of the country still beyond military control, China’s backing has enabled the junta to regain certain territories.

Despite this support, it’s important to point out that China doesn’t specifically favor Myanmar’s military. Although weapons are supplied to the junta, China has vested interests in armed groups that oppose it as well. Initially responding to the coup with tepid reactions, Beijing grew increasingly perturbed by the escalating conflict and economic instability ignited by emerging pro-democracy factions that collaborated with established ethnic groups fighting for autonomy.

China’s Frustrations and Strategic Corrections

Sharing a lengthy border with Myanmar, China is heavily invested in the nation, hoping to establish a corridor linking southwestern China to the Indian Ocean. However, ongoing violence has disrupted its infrastructure projects significantly.

China’s frustration has not only stemmed from the intensifying conflict but also from a surge in organized crime in border regions. It was dissatisfaction with the proliferation of scam operations that led Beijing to tacitly endorse northern ethnic armed groups to launch attacks against the military in late 2023. Consequently, vast regions fell to these groups, catching the junta off guard.

At this juncture, China “corrected course,” according to Morgan Michaels, a research fellow specializing in Southeast Asian security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He explained that China’s subsequent border policies aimed at compelling ethnic groups to scale back their opposition to the military. “Did China ever want these groups to become so powerful that they could dismantle the Myanmar state? I don’t think so; as soon as that risk loomed, China intervened,” he said.

Although China was initially disapproving of the coup due to the instability it caused, they feared that the junta’s collapse could unleash even greater disorder.

A Contested Election and Military Promises

Currently, China is backing the military’s electoral endeavors, which have been branded as a sham by both monitors and experts from the United Nations. Earlier this year, the Chinese foreign minister expressed hope that the elections would foster “domestic peace, ceasefire among conflicting parties, and governance aligned with the people’s will.” Alongside countries like Russia and Vietnam, China plans to deploy election observers.

The election lacks genuine opposition, with the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, dominating the candidate field and running uncontested in various areas. Critics expect junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to maintain his grip on power, as he is constitutionally required to assume a significant role in governance.

The military has assured China that essential economic projects will advance and has pledged to combat organized crime, particularly through the dismantling of scam compounds. Nonetheless, doubts remain about whether the military can uphold these commitments.

If the military fails to pursue genuine ceasefires or make substantial progress on infrastructure within the next two years, there’s a chance that China may reconsider its support, cautioned Tower. In Myanmar, there is rising anti-China sentiment, driven by beliefs that China is leveraging the conflict for its own ends—a view that Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, disputes.

“China doesn’t need a war to exert influence over any of the political players in the country,” she remarked. “They perceive the situation as dynamic, believing that a balance of power will eventually lead to stability.”

Conclusion

The intricate relationship between China’s actions and Myanmar’s military highlights the shifting dynamics of power and conflict in the region. As the military pushes forward with its controversial electoral process amid ongoing civil strife, the outcome remains uncertain. The delicate balance maintained by China in this situation shows its vested interest in minimizing instability, while also navigating its own geopolitical aims.