A Critical Meeting Aimed at Addressing Lebanon-Israel Relations

In Beirut, Lebanon, a significant meeting is set to occur this Friday, bringing together representatives from Israel, Lebanon, and other nations. This gathering comes with the looming threat of a renewed Israeli offensive against Lebanon. Taking place in Naqoura, this marks the second meeting featuring civilian representatives from both countries following their initial encounter on December 3 amidst ongoing Israeli assaults. Although the discussions are intended to oversee the ceasefire established between Israel and Hezbollah last year, the reality is that Israel has frequently breached this agreement.

Since October 8, 2023, more than 4,000 individuals have lost their lives in Lebanon due to the conflict with Israeli forces. Despite a ceasefire reached on November 27, 2024, Israel has still claimed over 300 lives, including at least 127 civilians, according to United Nations records. The talks come at a time when Israel persists in its bombardments on Lebanese soil, raising fears of an escalation of hostilities.

Who Is Participating in the Meeting?

This special committee comprises representatives from the United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, which is headquartered in Naqoura. The committee is chaired by a US general and was initially made up of military personnel. However, under pressure from Israel, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun appointed Lebanese diplomat Simon Karam to participate earlier this month. Israel has also included a civilian representative from its National Security Council, Uri Resnick, while US Special Representative for Lebanon Morgan Ortagus is also in attendance.

What Is the Goal of the Meeting?

The main goal of the committee is to supervise the ceasefire that was established last year. While the terms of this ceasefire were somewhat vague, it was generally understood that hostilities from both parties would cease, the Lebanese army would disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and Israel would withdraw its military presence from Lebanon’s northern regions. Officials assert that Lebanon has largely upheld its end of the deal. Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri noted during a conference in Beirut that the army’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah below the Litani River—central to southern Lebanon—are almost complete, except in areas still under Israeli occupation.

Despite Lebanon’s adherence, Israeli violations of the ceasefire remain a persistent issue, with continued occupation of five sites in southern Lebanon. “The primary function of this mechanism is to monitor and ensure compliance with the agreement,” Mitri stated. Lebanon has been “stringently observing” the ceasefire since its inception, a claim that contrasts sharply with Israel’s actions.

What Happened at the Last Meeting?

The previous gathering of this mechanism occurred in Naqoura on December 3 and was reportedly productive. The involvement of civilians demonstrates the commitment to facilitating political and military dialogues aimed at fostering security, stability, and lasting peace for all affected communities. A statement from the US embassy highlighted this commitment. Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office emphasized the potential for future economic agreements between the two nations. However, analysts are skeptical about this possibility, considering that Israel remains in occupation of territories in southern Lebanon, and more than 88,000 Lebanese individuals are still displaced.

Interestingly, despite the positive notes, Israeli strikes on Lebanon resumed the very next day.

Is Normalization on the Agenda?

From Lebanon’s perspective, normalization of relations with Israel following a war that has led to significant loss of civilian life is not on the table, as it could incite backlash within the population. Nonetheless, there has been persistent pressure from the US and Israel to pursue a peace treaty and move toward normalization.

This mechanism meeting also serves as a platform for bilateral discussions between Lebanon and Israel, who do not share official diplomatic relations. Lebanon prioritizes border demarcation, while Israel is keen on establishing a US-supported economic zone.

Could Israel Escalate Military Actions If Unhappy with the Talks?

The answer to this question is uncertain. Israel has alleged that Hezbollah is rearming, yet analysts argue that the group does not present an existential threat. Despite suffering considerable losses during last year’s conflict, including the deaths of several senior leaders, Hezbollah remains a significant political force in Lebanon. Internal Israeli politics and international pressure are likely to influence any decision regarding military action.

Officials from the US, Saudi Arabia, and France engaged with the Lebanese army leadership in Paris recently, aiming to align perspectives and potentially prevent any escalation by Israel. They also sought to document the Lebanese military’s commitment to disarming Hezbollah, as confirmed by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Hezbollah’s Position

Hezbollah, for its part, has publicly rejected the Lebanese government’s full disarmament plans, citing Israel’s continuous attacks and occupation of Lebanese territories as justification for its stance. The response of Hezbollah should the ceasefire advance remains uncertain, particularly in light of plans for the Lebanese army to dismantle its infrastructure, notably in the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers, which stretches from Sidon in the south to areas near Beirut.

The group has become politically and militarily weakened since the last war. Although many analysts contend that Hezbollah poses little threat to Israel, it could still create significant domestic complications if it feels cornered.

Conclusion

As international representatives gather in Naqoura, the focus remains on the implementation of a ceasefire and the future of Lebanon-Israel relations. The developments from these discussions could set the tone for peace or conflict in the region.

• A critical meeting is taking place in Naqoura, Lebanon, with representatives from the US, France, Israel, and Lebanon.
• Ceasefire violations by Israel continue, with thousands killed since the war began.
• Lebanon is striving to uphold its obligations, while Israel’s continued military presence raises tensions.
• Normalization of relations remains unpopular in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict and civilian casualties.