Recent Developments in the Ukraine Conflict

This week saw a stark contrast between Ukrainian military achievements and Russian narratives, as Moscow’s proclamations of certain victory clashed with the realities on the ground. Ukraine has been steadily reclaiming almost all of Kupiansk, a vital northern city, after they isolated Russian troops within.

The Situation in Kupiansk

Ukrainian forces have effectively cut off Russian logistics in the Kharkiv region, surrounding approximately 200 Russian soldiers in Kupiansk. On December 12, they cleared Russian forces from the forests north of the city. Geolocated footage captured on December 13 revealed Ukraine’s forces advancing into Kupiansk, reclaiming the southern suburb of Yuvileynyi, and pushing Russian troops into the northern and western outskirts.

By the following Monday, the situation for Russian forces had worsened. Ukrainian troops successfully prevented reinforcements from entering the city through a gas pipeline, a method previously used by Russia during the siege of Chasiv Yar. This left the isolated Russian troops reliant solely on drone supplies for their needs. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, they remained robust in repelling ongoing Russian attacks as late as Friday.

In contrast, Russia’s Ministry of Defence insisted they had the situation under control. On Monday, they stated that the Zapad Group of Forces maintained “reliable control” over parts of liberated Kupiansk, asserting that Ukrainian attempts to penetrate the city from the south were being thwarted.

A military reporter on Telegram noted, “While the Russian Armed Forces still hold portions of central and northern Kupiansk, much of it is either contested or under the Ukrainians’ control.”

Controversy Over Military Control

On Wednesday, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskii, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army, informed allies that approximately 90 percent of Kupiansk had been secured by Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov assured President Vladimir Putin that “the enemy is struggling to reclaim” the city.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, responded critically on Telegram, stating, “Belousov’s claims of Russian control are blatant lies. Most of the city is in Ukrainian hands, and our forces are actively clearing it.”

Developments in Pokrovsk

Belousov also claimed that Russia had gained full control over Pokrovsk—referred to as Krasnoarmeysk by Russia—and was nearing the defeat of Myrnohrad, which they call Dimitrov. Yet, Ukrainian forces have continuously pushed back, reporting significant territorial gains.

Syrskii revealed that Ukrainian troops had recaptured around 16 square kilometers (6 square miles) in the northern sector of Pokrovsk and an additional 56 square kilometers (22 square miles) to the west. Despite Russia’s assertions from December 2 about complete control over Pokrovsk, the reality on the ground tells a different story.

Unmanned Vehicle Strike and Oil Refinery Attacks

A notable incident this week was Ukraine’s use of an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) to attack a Russian Kilo-class submarine on December 15—an unprecedented act in military history. Footage from Novorossiysk, where the Russian fleet is based, showcased a tremendous explosion at the submarine’s rear.

Although Ukrainian officials took credit for this strike, Russia’s Defence Ministry disputed the claims, asserting that no vessels or personnel were harmed and showing what they claimed was the intact submarine.

Ukraine also scored other significant victories in recent long-range strikes, targeting oil refineries and power plants without much commentary from Russia regarding these losses.

Future Negotiations and Military Plans

In a recent two-day meeting in Berlin, U.S. and Ukrainian negotiating teams discussed ongoing peace efforts, while Russian officials are expected to receive a briefing on the outcomes shortly. Even so, Russia’s intentions signal a commitment to continued offensive operations.

Belousov stated that maintaining and increasing the pace of their offensive will be a top priority moving forward. Putin echoed this sentiment, framing the discussions as an attempt to conclude what he describes as a war initiated by Ukraine’s destructive forces and their Western allies, asserting that military objectives would ultimately be achieved.

Challenges with Recruitment and Losses

Russia is attempting to project an image of having abundant personnel to sustain its military ambitions in Ukraine. Belousov claimed nearly 410,000 Russians had volunteered for military service, an influx that seems contradictory to reports of escalating casualties.

Syrskii highlighted doubts regarding Russian recruitment efforts, suggesting that despite ongoing attempts, troop numbers remain largely unchanged. “Our forces are significantly reducing their numbers every day,” he stated on Telegram.

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to evolve, marked by notable military advancements for Ukraine and steadfast, albeit increasingly strained, declarations of control from Russia. As both sides prepare for the future, the reality remains complex and dynamic.

• Ukrainian forces have documented territorial gains in Kupiansk and Pokrovsk.
• Russia’s claims of control are increasingly disputed by evidence on the ground.
• Ukraine executed a significant strike on a Russian submarine, showcasing innovative military strategies.
• Ongoing peace negotiations are met with commitments from Russia to maintain aggressive military operations.